The hottest heating season is coming, and it is ti

2022-10-18
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The heating season is coming, and it is time to go long in coking.

based on the expectation of strong environmental protection and limited production in the heating season this year, we believe that the coke contract in January will still be affected by supply constraints. Affected by the relaxation of environmental protection in the first week of September, there was a wave of obvious decline in the disk. The decline of coke spot price led to the decline of the disk futures price, and the profit of coking production fell. It was nearly 400 yuan/ton from the peak of 1000 yuan/ton at the end of August, which also gave a better opportunity to intervene. Based on the pressure of production restriction on supply, we believe that there is a certain operating space for long coking profits in the heating season

the coking panel profit is greatly affected by the supply contraction. The main production area of coke is the main area of limiting production in the heating season, and the peak staggering scheme in autumn and winter this year may have a stricter impact on the production limit of coke ovens than last year. In the heating season, we make more profits for the coking plant, that is, buy j1901 and empty jm1901. According to this, what's the problem? The production logic ratio is 1:2. Among them, there are two aspects of risk points: 1 The production reduction in the heating season was less than expected. 2. Coking coal is greatly affected by weather, transportation, security inspection, etc., which strongly supports the price

operation logic and ideas

since 2018, environmental protection policies have been frequent, the operating rate of coking plants has been limited, and inventories have been running at low levels, driving coke prices higher. Due to the limited production of coke, the price trend of coal and coke is differentiated, which drives the profit of coking plant to rise. In August this year, under the premise of the central environmental protection group stationed in Shanxi, the coking plant's panel profit reached a historical high. The impact of supply side reform since 2016 and environmental protection production restriction in 2018 on the steel and coking industry is relatively obvious. The terminal demand remains stable, and the price rise is mainly driven by the restriction of production restriction on the release of supply side output

according to the trend of coking coal and coke in recent years, the price shows strong seasonality, which also benefits from the influence of policy guidance in recent two years. From the characteristics and laws of price change: in 2016 and 2017, coke began to hype the impact of environmental protection and production restriction from June. After the positive realization of the market, it rose and fell back. In November 2016, the futures price fell back after the peak, falling from the high point of 2776 yuan/ton to the low point of 1663 yuan/ton. In 2017, the coke price rose to the peak in August, falling from 2502 yuan/ton to the low point of 1756.5 yuan/ton

based on the expectation of strong environmental protection and limited production in the heating season this year, we believe that the January contract will still be affected by supply constraints, and the may contract may be driven by an ideal turning point for the resumption of production of experimental equipment in production, scientific research, teaching and other industries. Based on the pressure of production restriction on supply, we believe that there is still room to continue to expand after the decline in the production profit of panel coking, and we bargain long the production profit of 1901 contract in the heating season

the panel profit of the coking plant is greatly affected by the supply contraction. The main production area of coke is the main area of limiting production in the heating season. We will increase the profit of the coking plant in the heating season, that is, buy j1901 empty jm1901, and mix 1:2 according to the production logic

basic logic sorting

1 Environmental protection and production restriction have a significant impact on the release of coking capacity. 2017 is the first year of environmental protection, especially the peak staggering production in autumn and winter, which has a great impact on capacity release. With the strengthening of the production restriction policy, the capacity utilization rate of the coking plant fell sharply after entering September. Affected by the production restriction policy, the coking capacity presents periodic changes. The decline in capacity utilization has significantly suppressed coke production. This year's coke production fell significantly compared with the same period last year, and the year-on-year data of that month was basically below the 0 level

2. The impact of staggering peak production in autumn and winter this year on the coking industry may be more stringent than last year. In early August 2018, the action plan for the comprehensive treatment of air pollution in autumn and winter 2018-2019 in Beijing Tianjin Hebei and its surrounding areas (Exposure Draft) was released, which generally inherited the basic ideas of last year and focused on promoting clean heating, public transit railway, and enterprise upgrading and upgrading. In terms of specific rules, the production restriction is no longer "one size fits all", and some enterprises that meet the requirements can not miss the peak. Compared with last year, in addition to the 50% production restriction of iron and steel enterprises in key cities, the index requirement that the proportion of production restriction in other non key cities should not be less than 30% has been increased. At the same time, the new plan requires iron and steel enterprises to limit the production of sintering and coke oven synchronously. According to the new plan, attention should be paid to the restrictions on the production of steel enterprises' own coke ovens. The coking capacity of China's steel enterprises accounts for 1/3 of the country's total coke capacity, and the external protection of testing machines in Beijing Tianjin Hebei and surrounding areas accounts for more than 40% of the country's steel capacity. This policy has a great impact on coking supply

in the "three year action plan for winning the blue sky defense war" issued by the State Council in early July, the key areas were expanded compared with last year's "26+2" cities, and 1 DC square wave voltage U was applied to both ends of the resistance system composed of friction pair equivalent resistance and embedded resistance R1 and R2, including the Yangtze River Delta and Fenwei plain. Fenwei plain is the second highest concentration of PM2.5 in China after Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, At the same time, it is also the area with the highest concentration of sulfur dioxide, which has become a new focus of environmental protection

3. In the past two years, coke inventory has also shown obvious cyclical changes. From the inventory data, the overall inventory of steel mills and coking plants is not high at present, and has been in the downward channel. The inventory of port traders rebounded slightly, mainly due to the traders' hoarding in the early rise, and part of it is the stock of futures delivery. This year's coke foreign trade is poor, mainly due to the upside down of domestic and foreign prices, and there is little trade space. In this case, the low level of total coking inventory can actually reflect that the contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent, and the pressure that forces the spot price to fall sharply is not obvious for the time being

however, after the end of August, the disk has been significantly adjusted, and the spot goods at the port show signs of loosening. Part of the reason is that after the basis arbitrage space formed by the rise in futures prices converged in mid August, futures short orders made profits and sold spot goods at the same time, which suppressed the mentality of port spot goods and traders. At the same time, the price adjustment has also increased the wait-and-see mood of the downstream steel mills, and the plan to replenish the stock has been partially moved back

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