Analysis on the influencing factors of the recent

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Recent situation analysis of influencing factors of glacial acetic acid Market

from May 17 to 21, the domestic glacial acetic acid market, as expected, fell slightly driven by the reduction of factory real offer; But after all, the recovery time of problematic devices is not long. At present, there is no pressure on the inventory of major factories. The mentality of the factory is OK, and the price adjustment is slow. Taking Jiangsu and Shandong as examples, let's take a look at the price changes of glacial acetic acid in the middle of the year:

glacial acetic acid table

from the above table, we can see that the glacial acetic acid market fell by about yuan/ton in the middle of the year, and the market fell slowly. However, with the normal operation of domestic devices, it is expected that the contradiction between supply and demand in the subsequent market will gradually appear and escalate, and the future market should also fall. Next, let's have a detailed understanding of the factors affecting the market trend of glacial acetic acid in the near future:

supply side: in the middle of the year, Jiangsu Thorpe, Dezhou Hualu Hengsheng and Hebei Zhongxin devices resumed normal operation. Although the tight supply situation is still in place, in view of the subsequent supply will slowly recover and increase, the market mentality began to change in order to avoid the displacement of steel wire rope joints on pin joints. After Wujing unit 2 was restarted, unit 1 was shut down for maintenance on the 15th; Yankuang, Henan Shunda, Yangzi River acetyl and Nanjing Celanese plants maintained normal operation. With the slow recovery of market supply, the slow decline trend of the market has been obvious

according to zhuochuang's simple accounting, the current social inventory of glacial acetic acid in China is about 50000 tons, which is slightly higher than the level of supply and demand balance. However, out of the expectation that the future supply will be used for diamond, metallurgical oil bearing and other further increases, the mentality of the industry is poor

downstream products: the load of main downstream acetic acid esters, chloroacetic acid, PTA, acetic anhydride and other devices is basically normal, but affected by the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, customers' buying interest is significantly lower than before. Recently, ethyl acetate fell slightly due to the contradiction between supply and demand and market mentality; Butyl acetate followed n-butanol downward; PTA is affected by bad news such as crude oil falling, PX falling and futures market plummeting, and short-term weakness is difficult to change; Chloroacetic acid rebounded with liquid chlorine after hitting the bottom, but the market trading was poor; Acetic anhydride is also expected to decline in the future under the weak influence of acetic acid, which indicates that the machine damage is about to begin, due to the raw materials methanol and ice. The downturn in the downstream market and poor sales also affect the buying interest of the market

raw material methanol: in the early stage, due to the failure of glacial acetic acid device, the market fundamentals prevailed, and the acetic acid market rose slightly; However, with the normal operation of various units and the decline of acetic acid market, the influence of raw methanol on acetic acid has increased. Recently, the methanol market has continued to decline due to weak demand and abundant supply; The decline of methanol has reduced the cost pressure of glacial acetic acid to a certain extent

new capacity: the annual output of 500000 tons of glacial acetic acid plant of Nanjing BP is planned to be put into operation in June, and the 200000 tons of plant of Tianjin Soda Plant is planned to be put into operation at the end of July; If these two sets of devices are launched, the market competition will become more intense, and the price war may be unavoidable; But before August, it is expected that the market will still be dominated by the competition of existing effective capacity

macro environment: the recent spread of the European sovereign debt crisis triggered market panic, a large number of capital withdrawals, the strengthening of the US dollar and other factors, which led to the sharp decline in international oil prices. Although the US unemployment data improved, market investors still focused on the recovery process of the euro zone economy, which exacerbated the uncertainty of the global economic recovery, making the current stock market and commodity futures pessimistic, Recently, the stock market and commodity futures fell sharply. Although the market showed signs of stabilization after the sharp decline in the early stage, affected by the negative economic situation at home and abroad, it is expected that the commodity price will be weak in the short term

in conclusion, under the influence of various negative factors, the glacial acetic acid market is expected to decline in the short term

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